History of Transportation: New Horizons

Bullet trains at Tokyo station, Japan. The Shinkansen railway network had to build wide-gauge tracks to carry the bullet trains; the standard width being unsuited to their design. The first wide-gauge segment was built between Tokyo and Osaka.

Until now, driving has been a task best left to humans precisely because it involves so many variables. Is the approaching car going at 60 or 70 kilometres per hour? Could there be another vehicle out of sight around the corner? If I attempt to pass the car ahead, will its driver speed up?

For AI, the actual driving has been the easy part, at least on main roads. In 1994 two driverless Mercedes-Benz cars fitted with cameras and onboard AI drove 1,000 kilometres on roads around Paris. However, most driving takes place in cities, and that's where it becomes tough for AI, which until recently was unable to negotiate the unwritten rules of city traffic. For example, when Google's researchers programmed an autonomous vehicle to faithfully give way at an intersection as specified in the driver's manual, they found that the self-driving car would often never get a chance to go. So they changed the car's behaviour to make it inch forward after it had waited a while, signalling its intent to move ahead.

Another major source of uncertainty for a self-driving car is locating itself in space. It can't rely solely on GPS, which can be off by several metres, so the AI compensates by simultaneously keeping track of feedback from cameras, radar and a range-finding laser, cross-checked against GPS data. An average of these imperfect locations provides a highly accurate measurement.

AI is not restricted to driving. In recent-model cars, an AI program automatically adjusts the fuel flow to make it more efficient and the brakes to make them more effective. The most advanced cars of today boast systems to help you cruise down a motorway, creep along in bumper-to-bumper traffic or detect hazards in poor light using thermal imaging. Some cars can even do the dreaded parallel parking or prevent you from rear-ending the vehicle in front. They are still unable to take your non-driving grandparent to bingo, pick the children up from school or let you work peacefully in the back – but with the world market for driverless tech projected to grow 16 per cent per year over the next decade, that is probably only a short ride away.

Many might think of the electric car as a new innovation in transportation. However, electric cars were quite popular between the mid-19th and early 20th centuries because they offered a level of comfort and ease of operation that gasoline cars of the time could not provide. Although electric cars do have the potential to reduce pollution significantly by way of zero tailpipe emissions, they are not necessarily pollution-free. Electricity is required to run these vehicles, and carbon dioxide is still released if the electricity comes from fossil fuels. How much carbon dioxide is released depends on the power source used to charge the vehicle (the stronger the power, the greater the emissions), how efficient the vehicle is, and how much energy is given off as “waste” when the car is charging.

There are currently two types of electric cars: one powered by a gasoline generator (called a hybrid) and one powered by an on-board battery pack (considered a true electric car). Today, there is no shortage of prototype, preproduction, and concept electric cars out there; however, only a few highway-capable models are on the market. The rest are vehicles capable only of low speeds and limited ranges.

What is keeping the electric car from being widely adopted as a mode of transportation? Factors include the costs of developing, producing, and operating electric vehicles compared to those of internal combustion engine vehicles, and the fact that electric cars are generally more expensive than gasoline cars—the batteries, in particular, are pricey. Another factor is what experts dubbed “range anxiety.” Manufacturers have marketed these vehicles as ideal for short trips (around 40 miles); longer trips would require some sort of switching technology or rapid recharge system, both of which are being investigated.

Some people may think the Toyota Prius was the first hybrid vehicle to run on both gas and electricity. Not so. That honor belongs to the hybrid Buick Skylark, which was conceived of by Victor Wouk in 1972. The Environmental Protection Agency refused to approve the vehicle even though it met the clean air emissions standards of the time.

Wouk began his work on this venture in 1962, when Russell Feldman, one of the founders of Motorola, asked him to explore the possibilities presented by a solely electric car. After many studies and tests, Wouk concluded that purely electric cars were not a viable commercial venture. (In the 1970s that was likely true.) Instead Wouk proposed a hybrid vehicle that combined the advantages of an electric vehicle— namely, low emissions—with the power of a gasoline-driven vehicle.